By: BigSky
Read: Martingale, or "Gambler's Ruin" for more info on this fallacy. Uh, no. Martingale refers to a system of betting. The idea is to bet enough so that when a win comes it makes up for all the...
View ArticleBy: Rubbstone
Blazecock: The Martineau scenario doesn't apply because your return is limited by your outlay. The game is has fixed returns and is exactly that a game. It doesn't apply in real life and thats what...
View ArticleBy: anthill
... the basic fact that ... This is why economists are dangerous. Economic models and historical data are good, but they're not reality. Don't eat the menu.
View ArticleBy: MattD
The "investing is just gambling" fallacy ignores the basic fact that production and productivity (production divided by population) each improve over time, which generates a predictable positive real...
View ArticleBy: Blazecock Pileon
So within the context of his thinking, the rare success will make up for the losses and give positive return. Read: Martingale, or "Gambler's Ruin" for more info on this fallacy.
View ArticleBy: BigSky
He's the Philosopher of the Lotto. Right, you could invest in the next Google, and multiply your money by one hundred. Or you could invest small amounts in a hundred startups, 99 fail and one becomes...
View ArticleBy: delmoi
Except everyone was predicting this. b) Bet often! On the unlikely! (If you can afford it.) He's the Philosopher of the Lotto. Right, you could invest in the next Google, and multiply your money by one...
View ArticleBy: darth_tedious
>I just read The Black Swan. Great ideas in it - about two pages worth. Then a lot of masturbatory noodling for hundreds more. Agreed. a) Weird, even unprecedented stuff happens... and then, well,...
View ArticleBy: Riki tiki
"the total sum for this current global meltdown may be somewhere between 10-20 Trillion US dollars" How do terms like these even work in the context of a major economic collapse over several years?...
View ArticleBy: Dee Xtrovert
I just read The Black Swan. Great ideas in it - about two pages worth. Then a lot of masturbatory noodling for hundreds more.
View ArticleBy: Blazecock Pileon
The black swan is unpredictable. Beware false prophet. Beware false positive — but, yes, beware false prophet.
View ArticleBy: dhoe
Taleb is just insufferable. His Black Swan is slightly less self-enamoured than Fooled by Randomness, but still. My theory is that these trader guys are so immersed in superficiality and bullshit that...
View ArticleBy: stbalbach
Seek the black swan, and it will always be around every corner, by definition. The black swan is unpredictable. Beware false prophet.
View ArticleBy: atrazine
huh, in what sense is the guy a polymath? He's basically an applied math guy, right?
View ArticleBy: TheOnlyCoolTim
Nassim Nicholas Taleb ... epistemologist, polymath, scholar of randomness and knowledge... I believe this may be the most excellent biographical Wikipedia lede that I have ever seen. Dude should work...
View ArticleBy: gen
There's a transcript on the Charlie Rose site. Search for "transcript" and click there. It's not linkable.
View ArticleBy: gagglezoomer
Some who are more seasoned in statistics, economics or finance and the like may think the Black Swan or those who praise it naive. But for now, the Black Swan is on the top of my list of books that...
View ArticleWhat is 10 or 20 Trillion US dollars between friends?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the award-winning book The Black Swan, (previously), was interviewed recently by Charlie Rose: A conversation about economics with Nassim Taleb (as well as Time...
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